INTERVIEW OF DENNIS SAMMUT, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE LONDON BASED ORGANISATION “LINKS” WITH ARMINFO NEWS AGENCY OF ARMENIA ON 3 DECEMBER 2009

1. Do you think the Armenian-Turkish Protocols will be ratified in Turkey with the subsequent opening of the border?

The signing of the protocols between Armenia and Turkey on 10 October in Geneva was an important moment in history. For the first time since the Kars Treaty the two countries have sat together and agreed on future relations. It has taken more than eighty years for this to happen so I think waiting a few more days until the process of ratification is properly completed in the two countries is not the major issue. Having said that it is important the two sides understand they should not loose the momentum, so the quicker the ratification process takes place, the better. I would like to see the opening of the border between Armenia and Turkey happen as soon as possible as I think this will be a very significant gesture that will positvely change the current reality on the ground.

2.Do you think Armenia-Turkey rapprochement is an independent process or will be developed only with any progress in Nagorno-Karabakh process settlement?

Ofcourse relations between any two countries is a bilateral issue. However it is naïve not to undertsand that what happens in the relations between Armenia and Turkey impacts the Karabakh peace process and vice versa. I would prefer to look at this from a more positive perspective. Any progress on one should help to ensure progress in the other.

3.A recent meeting by the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Munich was marked by the President Aliev prior statement on the possibility of military intervention. Do you think this statement by Aliev is one of his regular rhetoric he made in the past or/and a blackmail to force the Armenian side for the concession or Baku really keeps the option of war unleashing?

War is not going to solve any of the problems in the Caucasus and should be avoided at all costs. On 1 December LINKS published a long report on the Karabakh conflict settlement process. In it we state the following: “It is now time for the international community to speak with one voice and in more robust tones to both sides. Some messages that have been transmitted before, but in cautious diplomatic language need to be repeated in more clear terms and without ambiguity in such a way that not only the leaderships, but also the populations of the two countries, will understand clearly. Armenia needs to be told that the continued occupation of the Azerbaijani territories around Nagorno Karabakh is neither acceptable nor sustainable. Azerbaijan must be told that any attempt or talk of regaining these territories by force without a UN Security Council resolution will bring Azerbaijan in direct confrontation with the international community. Both sides must be reminded of the right of all refugees and IDPs to return to their homes in safe and dignified conditions.”

4.In case Azerbaijan will again unleash the war in Nagorno Karabakh, what are the possible scenarios of the situation development in the region, and the reaction of the international community, in particularly the US?

I do not think Armenia and Azerbaijan are going to fight another war. I think we are on the verge of an important breakthrough in the current negotiations on the Karabakh conflict. The sides must now have the courage to take the last steps and to agree the basic principals on which a peaceprocess can be based. It is also time now to build a national consensus for peace in both countries. Some say that there is already a national consensus but in reality this is a consensus built on slogans and maximalist positions. What is needed now is something more real and more serious. In this the responsibility is not only with the governments but also with politicans of all parties and with the leaders of society. There is now also a need for a different engagement by the international community. Support for the Minsk process must increase, but other things also need to be done beyond that. If there is a breakthrough in the next weeks this will not be the end of the story, but rather the end of the beginning. There is a lot of work to be done by both governments, and by the international community for an agreement on paper to be turned into a proper peace process, not least to help ensure that the ownership of such an agreement does not remain a monopoly of a tiny political elite but is shared within the wider community on both sides.

I believe everybody should put their maximum effort towards this since a solution to the Karabakh conflict will bring a new dawn to the Caucasus region and will start the process of finally fully integrating the region within the global processes for the benefit of both the people of the region and of other nations with a stake in its success.