Introduction

At the start of 2010 Kazakhstan takes over the Chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the OSCE. This is a defining moment not only for the Organization but for Kazakhstan itself. It will be the first time that a CIS member state – and a Muslim majority one at that — becomes OSCE Chairman-in-Office, and it will take the Chairmanship of the organization the furthest east that it has ever been. It comes at an important time when the organization has embarked on a debate on the future of European security and when events beyond the OSCE region, in the Gulf Region and South Asia, are increasingly intertwined with the security of the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian space.

For Kazakhstan the Chairmanship is a chance to present to the world its political maturity and its diplomatic skills, at a time when the country is increasingly confidant as a player on the international stage. For the OSCE, the Kazakhstan chairmanship comes at a challenging moment. The war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008 tested the credibility of the organization to its limits. The debate that ensued has kicked off a new dialogue on the future of European security, a debate that started properly at the OSCE informal ministerial meeting in Corfu in June 2009. It will be during the Kazakh presidency in 2010 that this debate will come into its own fully.

Background

The modern Kazakhstan state is barely twenty years old. The country reluctantly declared independence in 1991 as a result of the collapse of the USSR, It emerged as the ninth largest country in the world and one with many contrasts and contradictions, on the one hand traditional and insular, on the other hand rich in natural resources, of great strategic importance and cautiously confidant.

Kazakhstan society is clan based. There are three main clans known as zhuz. The name of these “hordes” - the “Greater”, “Middle”, and “Small” - underlies the principle of genealogical seniority -such as an elder, middle, and younger brother. According to this complex and widely-branched system, each zhuz is divided into tribal groups which are, in turn, divided into smaller groups of extended families. Kazakhs make up just over two thirds of the country's population of 16.5 million, the other third being mainly Russian.

Kazakhstan is today considered one of the most important energy producers. It is estimated by industry sources to have 30 billion bbl of oil reserves and 2.407 trillion cu m of natural gas reserves. The expansion of oil production, coupled with the development of new fields, will enable the country to produce as much as three million barrels (477,000 m³) per day by 2015, lifting Kazakhstan into the ranks of the world's top 10 oil-producing nations.

Since its independence Kazakhstan has kept a close relationship with Russia, in the political, economic and security spheres. However, the Kazakh government has sought to balance this with an ever increasing close relationship with the United States and Europe, particularly in the economic and energy sectors. Assuming the Chairmanship of the OSCE is Kazakhstan’s biggest leap onto the international stage, and it has not been without its controversies. Several western countries were at first reluctant to endorse the Kazakh Chairmanship. As Chairman-in-Office of the OSCE Kazakhstan will be the standard bearer of the Helsinki Final Act and all the other commitments made at the European level in the fields of democracy and human rights, including those related to free and fair elections.

The OSCE's own Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) considers that Kazakhstan has never held a proper free and fair election. The most recent of the country's electoral failings occurred in 2007, when the pro-presidential party Nur-Otan won all the seats in parliamentary election. In the course of the past year, it has come under even more intense scrutiny following the passage of legislation seen to restrict media freedoms, proposals within its one party parliament that President Nursultan Nazarbayev be named “president for life,” and a spate of violent attacks against journalists.

Kazakhstan's Approach to the Chairmanship

While Kazakhstan may initially have been encouraged by Russia to take over the OSCE Chairmanship, there is no doubt that the country's leadership now see this as an opportunity to show off the country’s new self confidence in the international arena. This can even be seen in the logo chosen for the Chairmanship – combining the two most prominent features of the flag of Kazakhstan, the golden sun and the soaring eagle. The sun in the logo symbolizes energy, revival and time. By displaying the sun, Kazakhstan affirms its commitment to universal values and openness to the international community. In the language of symbolism, the silhouette of a soaring bird stands for strength, breadth and vision. For the people of the steppes, this is also a symbol of freedom, independence, aspirations towards high goals and a flight into the future. According to the Kazakh designers, “The eagle (berkut in Kazakh) helps better understanding of the spirit of a free Nomad, a hospitable host, a true ally and a fair partner ready to help at any time. Here, in addition to symbolizing the protector of right and freedoms, berkut also signifies an impartial observer soaring high up in the skies of democracy and cooperation.”

Many consider that Kazakhstan has its work cut out for it. As it takes over the Chairmanship of the OSCE European security is being redefined, not only in the corridors of power by diplomats at the OSCE headquarters in Vienna, but by events on the ground closer to home. While twenty years ago NATO's armies were confronting Russia and its allies in Central Europe, they are today fighting a much more elusive enemy in the dusty villages of Helmand and the muddy streets of Kabul. Central Asia is the new front line. The Kazakh Presidency will have to balance between the old concerns of mistrust between the West and Russia, with the new concerns about an as yet unquantifiable enemy on its own doorstep. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan provide important transit facilities for supplies to NATO forces in Afghanistan. In 2009 all but Kazakhstan have reported armed clashes with Islamists.

Revisiting the Debate on European Security

The 17th Ministerial Council of the OSCE meeting in Athens on December 1-2, 2009 adopted an important declaration entitled “Reconfirm-Review-Reinvigorate Security and Co-operation from Vancouver to Vladivostok.” The declaration restated the vision of a Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian space “free of dividing lines and zones with different levels of security” but admits that “to achieve this goal much work remains to be accomplished.” It has been left up to the Kazakh Chairmanship to take this forward in 2010. A test of the progress Kazakhstan will make will be its ability to convene a summit of the Heads of State of the fifty six OSCE member states in 2010. No such summit has taken place since the 1999 Summit in Istanbul. Kazakhstan, with Russian encouragement, is pushing for a summit meeting, but Western countries are reluctant to agree to a summit unless it is properly prepared in terms of both substance and modalities.

Here the question arises if Kazakhstan's own security arrangements and alliances are an opportunity for its OSCE Chairmanship or an obstacle. Kazakhstan is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

The CSTO was formed in 1992 from the wreckage of the Soviet collapse. The CSTO members are Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia and Uzbekistan. In many ways the CSTO has been like its political counterpart the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), a hollow organization aimed to partly satisfy Russia's imperial instincts. However in recent years there have been some attempts to give the CSTO some teeth, including through the creation of a Collective Rapid Reaction Force (CRRF). The CRRF consists of mainly Russian military components, counterterrorist units of the security organs, and emergency ministry and internal ministry units, and its mission is to deal with crisis and or conflict situations in the CSTO member states. Kazakhstan hosted with some fanfare the first CRRF exercise in October 2009. Other exercises hosted by different branches and agencies of the CSTO member states are planned for 2010, during the Kazakh OSCE Chairmanship. This will allow Russia to push forward its approach that there is a counterpart to NATO to the East.

Kazakhstan is also a member of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization. The SCO is composed of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan and was formed as a confidence-building mechanism to resolve border disputes. It has risen in stature since then, making headlines in 2005 when it called for the United States to set a timeline for withdrawing from military bases in Central Asia. Over the past few years, the organization's activities have expanded to include increased military cooperation, intelligence sharing, and, especially, counterterrorism exercises. The SCO has also intensified its focus on Afghanistan, and may play a greater role in international efforts there in the future. Religious extremism, terrorism, and drug trafficking in Afghanistan have continued to pose threats to the region, giving SCO member nations a vested interest in the country's stability. While Central Asian involvement in the NATO-led peacekeeping mission has been limited, Afghan President Hamid Karzai has backed greater SCO participation in rebuilding efforts. Some SCO member nations are actively engaged in Afghanistan. While some experts say the organization has emerged as a powerful anti-U.S. bulwark in Central Asia, others believe frictions between its two largest members, Russia and China, effectively preclude a strong, unified SCO. In addition, Iran is seeking membership in the SCO, which is consistent with Tehran's “looking East” foreign policy. Iran wants to forge closer relationships with states vital to its interests in Central Asia, including Russia, India, and China, and views the SCO as a potential guarantor of future security.

Overall, while the OSCE Chairmanship is Kazakhstan's biggest diplomatic challenge in its young history it will also show its ability to balance priorities to its North and West with those to its East and South.

Kazakhstan and the GCC States

For Kazakhstan relations with the countries of the Gulf are increasingly important and fit well into this balanced approach to foreign policy. Kazakhstan and the GCC states are continuing to develop robust economic and trade relations in the spheres of energy, trade, agro-investments, and commerce. Islamic financing banks and norms are also becoming more popular in Kazakhstan. These relations are further consolidated by good personal relations between the leaderships of both sides. Members of GCC royal families increasingly go to Kazakhstan to pursue hunting. Kazakhstan is specifically seeking to attract GCC royals by apparently building exquisite hunting lodges for visitors from the Arabian Peninsula. It should not be overlooked that the tribal and traditional nature of the GCC states and Kazakhstan appear, at least on the surface, to be very similar.

However these relations are now also underpinned by more hard core security considerations. GCC states are increasingly sensitive to the danger of an overflow from the Pakistan-Afghanistan crisis. Not only do they harbor millions of expatriate workers from these two countries in their midst but they are also home to many of their political dissidents. Kazakhstan's role in providing a space for a comprehensive discussion of how the Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian space will engage with the challenges to the south will be of paramount importance to the GCC states.

A Journey through Uncharted Waters

Kazakhstan's Chairmanship of the OSCE is a journey through uncharted waters for both the organization as well as for the country itself. There is a potential for both Kazakhstan and for the OSCE to emerge from this journey stronger, more credible and better prepared to face the future. Much will depend on the ability of the Kazakh leadership to show flexibility and sensitivity to events near and far. It will also depend on the goodwill of neighbours and friends and their willingness to help Kazakhstan to fulfil this journey successfully.

This is the first of a series of briefs jointly prepared by INEGMA and LINKS focusing on the Kazakhstan Chairmanship of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe in 2010.