London, November 13th 2007

Presentation of Dennis Sammut, Co-rapporteur of the Caucasus Caspian Commission and Executive Director of LINKS, at the event launching the report of the Commission held at RUSI in London on Monday 12 November.

The Caucasus-Caspian Commission has set out in this report to think ambitiously about the region’s future and its European dimension. Our approach has been to look at the problems facing the region, but also to look beyond current problems at the region’s huge human, economic, political and strategic potential.

The Commission identified four key challenges for the region in the future:

Ensuring the region’s security, the safeguarding of restored or newly achieved independence and solutions to the problems posed by unresolved conflicts in the Caucasus.
Improving standards of governance, transparency and accountability, in ways that ensure governments will respect human rights and allow competitive politics to determine their internal political outcomes.
Realizing the region’s economic potential and securing its role as an energy provider and energy transit route; related issues include energy security and economic sustainability in the light of the finite nature of the region’s natural resources.
The region’s relations with the world, and particularly for the countries of the South Caucasus, their relations with the European Union.

The Commission is of the opinion that all four areas are interconnected. Neither the nations in the region, nor the international community have the luxury to address one issue without dealing with the others is not an option. This report recommends a comprehensive approach with movement on all fronts simultaneously.

On Security the Commission is calling for a new, more holistic approach to security involving all the states of the region and other interested parties. This approach should aim to establish a new security arrangement that can help build trust between the states of the Caucasus Caspian region and their neighbours, introduce where appropriate a European perspective as an alternative, and put a halt to the slow but steady process of militarization of the region. The Commission is suggesting the launch of an inclusive process – modeled on the Helsinki process that led to the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe (CSCE), a process that will consider the region’s security challenges.

On the conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno Karabakh the report highlights an urgent need for the governments and authorities involved to abandon time-worn rhetorical arsenals in favour of forward-looking visions of a region without conflict. The Commission therefore calls on all governments, opposition figures and the self proclaimed authorities of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorny Karabakh to renounce publicly and unequivocally the use of force as a means to resolve conflict.

The Commission believes that the current status quo with regards to the conflict regions in the South Caucasus is unsustainable. The Commission hopes for a more intensive engagement by the international community to the resolution of these conflicts. The Caucasus-Caspian Commission considers that considerable international engagement will need to be exercised to push the conflict resolution processes forward. In particular, there is urgent need to consider possibilities for transitional arrangements between the current status quo and a final settlement. In this critical period an international engagement of a different nature to that we have seen so far is going to be required.

The Caucasus-Caspian Commission in this regard finds merit in further discussion of a proposal put to it that interim arrangements be devised under whose aegis issues such as the return of refugees and IDPs, status and security can be considered. The Commission itself has stopped short of fully endorsing this proposal but thinks it can be discussed as a possible option.

The Commission remains convinced that a much more visible engagement on the part of the international community in the management of the interim period arrangements will be necessary. The Commission is further convinced that no solution to the conflicts, whether it is that proposed here or an alternative framework, will be successful without conviction and vision from the parties to the conflict to allow for compromise and for the benefits of resolution to become evident. These elements form the ingredients that have been missing so far in the quest for a solution.

The Commission believes that efforts must be made to improve, with a view to fully normalizing, Armenian-Turkish relations. The Commission understands that history lays heavily on the collective memories of Armenia and Turkey. There is no solution to this problem except through truth and reconciliation pursued simultaneously and with equal vigour.

Governance

Processes of reform in the post-Soviet states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia have overall been slow. Across the region, the absence of independent judiciaries and accountable law enforcement agencies, and the lack of proper parliamentary oversight of the executive all remain sources of concern

The report calls for increases in levels of transparency and accountability in government, and for the use of conditionality especially by the European Union as a leverage to promote good governance.

The report proposes an ad hoc task force within the Council of Europe that will engage with the countries of the South Caucasus, including the de facto states, to promote and monitor the judicial process, make recommendations and criticisms where necessary, and provide technical assistance where possible. The Commission noted that there is less pluralism in the media in the states of the Caucasus and Central Asia than a decade ago and makes concrete recommendations on how to address this problem.

Despite many negative tendencies, the Commission believes that Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are ready for a qualitative leap forward in the way they conduct competitive politics. This assessment is based on an ability of political elites in the region to connect with their broader constituencies. It sees a need to develop in the South Caucasus political parties based on sound political programmes rather than simply personalities

Electoral process in the South Caucasus remains problematic. This should be seen as the symptom of a wider democratic malaise and will never be cured until the root causes of the problem are dealt with. In 2008 all three South Caucasus countries face important presidential and parliamentary elections. The monitoring of these elections by the international community should be based on clear benchmarks accompanied by clear response if the benchmarks are not met. The EU must be more ready to use its leverage with the three states in this year of elections. Recent events in Georgia and the prospect of presidential elections there in less than eight weeks time introduces a sense of urgency to these issues.

The report put a particular focus on the relations of the European Union with the region. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are European countries. The European Union must stop seeing the region as an awkward adjunct to other problems to be dealt with through fragmentary engagement. Instead there is an opportunity for Europe to transfer its experience and achievements in conflict transformation, economic prosperity, democracy and institution building to the countries of the region and through them showcase its own success to Asia and the Middle East.

The Caucasus-Caspian Commission believes that the time to move on all these issues is now. Despite the many concerns that the report highlights the Commission was impressed by the vibrant ongoing debate about the future of the region and hopes that this report will be a contribution towards this debate. The Commission is in no doubt that this is a defining moment for the Caucasus Caspian region. What happens now will impact the region for the next two decades and beyond. This is why the Commission believes that there is a need for all interested parties to rise to the occasion, in order to both accept the challenges and seize the opportunities available.

To read about the launch of the Commission please click the link below -

http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7071986

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