"The next hundred days will be crucial for the Minsk Process"

Baku, 22 January 2010

LINKS Executive Director Dennis Sammut said in an exclusive interview with 1news.az that the next hundred days are going to be crucial for the Minsk Process and its efforts to resolve the Karabakh conflict. He warned that if the negotiations within the framework of the Minsk Process collapse it will take years for the momentum in the negotiations to be regained.

How do you evaluate the visits of Prime Minister Erdogan of Turkey and President Sargsyan of Armenia to Russia? Do you think the new level of economic co-operation between Turkey and Russia will impact the Karabakh Peace process?

Relations between Russia and Turkey are developing in a very positive manner and we are seeing co-operation both at the economic and the political level. The visit of Prime Minister Erdogan to Moscow was an expression of this relationship. There is no doubt that the Caucasus was on the agenda of the two leaders. Both countries have a long history of involvement in the Caucasus. Not all this history is good so they have to be very careful in how they deal with the region. Both Turkey and Russia have expressed a desire to help bring about a peaceful resolution of the Karabakh conflict and by working together for this they can be very effective.

The visit of the Armenian President to Russia at the same time as the Turkish Prime Minister was perhaps a co-incidence, but must also be seen as part of the efforts being exerted by Russia to resolve the Karabakh conflict.

Are Russia and the United States in a position to put pressure on Turkey to open its borders with Armenia before the Karabakh conflict is resolved?

Turkey is an important regional power. The United States and Russia may make their views known to Turkey but they cannot and should not exert pressure. The issue of the opening of the borders between Armenia and Turkey and the ratification of the protocols signed between the two countries is not one that can be decided in a foreign capital – not Moscow, nor Washington, nor indeed Baku.

What are the prospects that the Karabakh conflict be resolved in 2010?

The negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the framework of the Minsk Process have been going on for many years. The differences between the sides have been narrowed down substantially, particularly as a result of the six meetings held between the two Presidents in 2009, but the situation on the ground has not changed since the cease fire of 1994. The present peace process led by the OSCE Minsk Group and the three co-Chair countries – Russia, the United States and France now needs to deliver. Progress does not depend on the co-Chair but on the political will of the leaderships of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The next hundred days will be crucial for the Minsk process. I do not think that negotiations in that format can be drawn out for much longer without some tangible results. The danger is that if the Minsk Process collapses it will take years for the momentum in the negotiations to be regained. So at this point all efforts need to be exerted to achieve a breakthrough in the negotiations.

However it is also important to understand that a breakthrough will only mean that the negotiations can start in earnest in a new, mutually agreed framework. So there is a lot of work to be done even in a best case scenario.

Read the interview in Russian on 1news.az